Thursday, March 14, 2013

Is Marathon Participation Peaking? Not Really, Says Running USA

The annual Running USA Marathon report is out for 2012, and at first glance, it appears that marathon participation was on the decline for the first time in over a decade. According to the study, the estimated number of U.S. marathon finishers declined from a record 518,000 in 2011 to 487,000 in 2012 (a 6% decrease), but like 2001, most of the decline can be attributed to a unique situation; in 2001, it was post-9/11 travel impacting fall marathons, and in 2012, the cancellation of the ING New York City Marathon, the world's largest marathon with more than 47,000 finishers or 9% of the 2011 overall finisher total.


If the sold-out NYC Marathon had been held, there is no doubt that the 2012 overall marathon finisher total would have exceeded the 2011 record of 518,000. In addition, overall, there was a 1.6% increase in finishers from the same 388 U.S. marathons for 2011 and 2012 (464,122 vs. 471,595); a slight percent increase (1%) from the same 367 marathons in 2010 and 2011 (495,135 vs. 500,206).

Some other interesting stats from the study (be sure to read the full study for more):

Gender and Age Group Breakdown








1980
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

Women  
11%
40%
40%
41%
41%
41%
41%
42%

Men
90%
60%
60%
59%
59%
59%
59%
58%

Masters (40 yrs+)
26%
46%
46%
45%
46%
46%
46%
46%

Open (20 to 39 yrs)
69%
52%
52%
53%
52%
52%
52%
52%

Juniors (under 20)
5%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%

                   

Female
Male







6-17 yrs
1%
1%







18-24 yrs
10%
7%







25-34 yrs
35%
26%







35-44 yrs
31%
31%







45-54 yrs
17%
23%







55-64 yrs
5%
10%







65+ yrs
1%
2%







                   
Median Age






      
1980
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
(Mean)
Males 
34
40
40
39
40
40
40
40
(39.8 yrs)
Females
31
35
36
35
35
35
35
35
(36.2 yrs)
Median Age Overall

38
38
38
36
37
37
37
(38.3 yrs)
                   
Median Times - U.S. Marathon Finishers
 







1980
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

Males  
3:32:17
4:19:31
4:20:04
4:20:04
4:13:54
4:16:14
4:16:34
4:17:43

Females
4:03:39
4:49:57
4:49:48
4:43:31
4:41:29
4:42:10
4:42:15
4:42:58

 
Year Estimated U.S. Marathon Finisher Total
1976 25,000  
1980 143,000  
1990 224,000  
1995 293,000  
2000 353,000  
2004 386,000  
2005 395,000  
2006 410,000  
2007 412,000  
2008 425,000  
2009 467,000  
2010 507,000  
2011 518,000 (all-time high)
2012 487,000  

3 comments:

  1. I wish we had more of the underlying data. I'm curious how many of the participants in 2012 were simply checking off their "gonna complete a marathon" bucket list item. Presumably a good percentage of these folks are unlikely to participate in a marathon next year.

    By the same token, I wonder how many of the participants are running multiple marathons each year. These folks skew the numbers upward a bit, at least if you're trying to claim that more individuals are running marathons.

    I think perhaps the two most interesting points from the data we're given are:

    1. Participation may be growing, but the makeup of the participants is kinda staying the same. The broad age group and gender breakdowns have remained largely unchanged over the past six years, and the table of median age shows little variation over the past six years.

    2. For all the discussion of all the "slow" folks entering marathons, the median times are actually trending faster. Perhaps the mean times are trending down (that data's not provided), but the faster median time means that for every additional "slow" finisher there's an additional faster-than-median runner to balance them out.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Interesting article.
    I still see alot of interest in people who simply have placed running a marathon on their bucket list.
    That is how I started after my first 5k in 2007, I then placed running a marathon on my bucket list. I ran my first full marathon in 2008.
    I am now training for my 6th full marathon.
    I am definetely a Penguin or slow runner.

    ReplyDelete

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